November 7, 2006
Midterm 2006
:A couple quick thoughts about this election (I will be following up on some of these themes in the days ahead):
- Vote!
- Who would have thought the Democrats would have a chance to take over the majority in either the House or the Senate even three months ago? Amazing. At the beginning of the year, some were looking at an outside shot of the Republicans gaining a filibuster immune majority for the last two years of the Bush administration (60 seats). Of course, Conservative spinners are now trying to say what a huge loss it would be for the Democrats if they do not take the House tonight and how it was a preordained victory. Pure rubbish and political spin. Just remember the last few election cycles and how surprising it really is for the Democrats to be even close tonight.
- For all of the Bush and Rove bravado about tonight’s results, a Democratic victory could be the best thing for his administration (not to mention for the country). Clinton was able to use a divided government to gain support and move the agenda of the country away from his base. If Bush did the same, he would find that a lot of people could agree on things like energy conservation, an aggressive policy towards Iran and North Korea, and immigration. Not to mention that he wouldn’t mind having another party to pin some of the Iraq war on (although it will be hard to stick after six years of complete dominance in DC for the GOP).
- No matter what happens, the power of the Republican majority is in serious trouble. The Democrats were able to neutralize the money advantage of the GOP across the board this year (they still had less but not as much as in previous cycles). This is with corporate lobbyists giving two-thirds of their contributions to Republicans. Only a year ago, that was closer to one-hundred percent as the GOP basically demanded that K Street lobbyists only play ball with them or their bills would sit on the sideline. Businesses are now rethinking that logic and it is obvious that with a tight Congress (with either party in control) heading into a wide-open Presidential race, the Democrats will be getting money from the corporations, in addition to the funding they found elsewhere.
- Finally, this is one exciting race. As many as seven Senate seats are still in play. The House is likely to flip but it could be anywhere from 10 to 40 seats that change with control still in the balance. The Democrats will also gain seats at the state level which could be huge heading into redistricting fights in 2010. Imagine if gerrymandering had not become such a great science for both parties? These nights would be too much fun.
Like I said, I hope to be posting some follow-up comments in the days ahead. This has been an exciting race that I really regret not sharing more of my thoughts on it.
(Filed under: Bush Administration, Commentary, Politics, America)
Divided Government
:After basically six years of one party rule, the Democrats have retaken the House of Representatives for the first time since 1994. While the Democrats have taken 15 seats and have a couple vulnerable districts left (see Georgia), there are way too many Republican seats still up for grabs to even think that the Republicans can hold. The Senate is completely different. The numbers in my home state of Virginia look good for Allen to hold his seat and help keep the Republican majority - the question is by how many seats in both…
(Filed under: Uncategorized)
November 8, 2006
Give Allen Some Time
:By now surely everyone knows that my home state is at the center of the country’s glare as we see if there may be a recount. And surely you know that there is not really a recount to be had - the whole state is on electronic ballots. Last year, a state wide recount that lasted till nearly Christmas changed 37 votes. Even assuming that voter turnout is much higher, 7,000 votes will not be overcome.
All that said, Senator Allen should be allowed as much time as he needs within the democratic system. In 2000, these pages wrote very strongly that the power of our democracy included the rules that governed recounts and making sure all ballots were counted. In that case, I believe we all were failed by Bush’s foils and appeals to the Supreme Court. We need to allow everything be checked and that the rules of Virginia are followed, even if it takes till Christmas.
I believe Senator Allen will concede by the end of the week, the election is over. But Allen is owed rule of law. And after many of years of service to our country, Allen should be given some time to come to terms that his political career is over.